Severe Weather Awareness Week
Severe Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota continues through Friday, April 16th. A tornado drill will be held on Thursday, April 15th. More information is available here.
SPEAKERS
Jim du Bois, Todd Krause
Jim du Bois 00:00
With the arrival of spring comes also the threat of severe weather. Tornadoes, strong winds, lightning and flash flooding pose significant dangerous to those who are unprepared and unprotected. This week on Dialogue Minnesota, a conversation with National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Todd Krause on how you can stay safe when storms threaten. We'll also discuss Severe Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota which begins on Monday, April 12 and continues through Friday, April 16. A tornado drill will be conducted on Thursday, April 15. More about that later in the program. Todd, welcome to Dialogue Minnesota.
Todd Krause 00:39
Thank you, Jim.
Jim du Bois 00:41
Meteorological spring began on March 1 and astronomical spring commenced on March 20. Spring generally marks the start of severe weather season. We had our first taste of severe weather in Minnesota on March 10, in the form of severe thunderstorms. Four years ago on March 6 2017, tornadoes were reported in the state, a very unusual occurrence for early March. Correct, Todd?
Todd Krause 01:07
Well, so unusual that we've never had that before. That was easily the earliest we've ever had tornadoes in Minnesota that we know of. The previous earliest data had been on a March 18. And so to get three tornadoes on March 6 was just pretty amazing.
Jim du Bois 01:23
Well, why does much of our severe weather occur in the spring months?
Todd Krause 01:27
It's mainly the clash of the seasons, the warm temperatures coming up from the south, and still some lingering cold weather to the north. So, storms love that difference in temperature. And so, you wind up getting storms developing and and it's still quite windy aloft, the jet stream is still pretty strong. And, so that adds a huge amount of fuel to the fire and so can get severe weather quite easily, especially starting in April.
Jim du Bois 01:54
In which months of the year do we experience most of our severe weather here in Minnesota?
Todd Krause 01:58
Most of the severe weather is generally from April through September. But June is number one, July is number two, in terms of hail and wind damage and tornadoes. But we've had as we just mentioned tornadoes now as early as March 6, and as late as November 16.
Jim du Bois 02:17
We experience clashes of temperatures in the fall season as well. But why isn't fall a prime severe weather season?
Todd Krause 02:25
To get a little bit technical, you still have some warmer temperatures up at five and 10,000 feet and that tends to inhibit severe weather. And furthermore, the winds upstairs are generally a little bit weaker. So we can get severe weather certainly in the fall, but not as common as during the spring.
Jim du Bois 02:45
When have the latest bouts of severe weather been recorded in Minnesota which month?
Todd Krause 02:50
November. To my knowledge, we've never had any severe weather from mid-November on, you know, so Thanksgiving through December, January, February. Generally you can count on December, January and February being just fine.
Jim du Bois 03:05
How do forecasters to determine where severe weather is likely to break out on a given day?
Todd Krause 03:10
There are a whole host of things that we'll look at. I've mentioned the jet stream and the wind speeds aloft, whether there's enough temperature variation, whether there's enough humidity in the air--that is the fuel for the fire the fuel for the storms. Really, you have to have enough humidity. You have to have a variety of other things, wind shear that various changes in direction play a big role as well. Maybe there's a cold front or warm front or low pressure. All those things have to come together to get severe weather.
Jim du Bois 03:42
The severe weather forecasts come out of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Why was that location selected as the point for the dissemination of severe weather forecasts?
Todd Krause 03:53
Well, the National Severe Storm Center is in Oklahoma, as you mentioned, it's been there since about 1995. You've got the National Severe Storms Laboratory that's been there for many, many years. And so they moved the Operational Forecast Center for severe weather down to Norman, Oklahoma so that they could all take advantage of some of the latest thinking and the latest research. Prior to 1995, they'd have been in Kansas City. And folks that remember, tornado watches and hearing severe thunderstorm watches years ago it was always the National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City. And they moved in '95 to Norman, Oklahoma.
Jim du Bois 04:36
Now how do the forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center isolate which areas of the country might be prone to severe weather on a given day?
Todd Krause 04:44
Well, the whole just look at all these different factors that have been mentioned and where they basically all come together is what they'll flag. They're usually a couple things that are major tip offs. Certainly if you've got, you know, significant jet stream coming in, low pressure coming in, those are the first areas that you wind up looking at.
Jim du Bois 05:07
Let's talk about the difference between a watch and a warning. For most of our listeners, I think they know what those are and why they are different. But once again, let's go over what they mean.
Todd Krause 05:16
The watch basically just means be aware, watch it. It doesn't mean there's going to be a storm. Conditions are possible for severe weather or for tornadoes, but we don't know for sure. And so, it's to give a heads up, generally an hour, maybe a few hours ahead of time that there could be severe weather in this specific area.
Jim du Bois 05:36
And a lot of tools have been developed, say in the last 50 or 60 years that have greatly helped forecasters. Certainly satellites are one of those tools. But Doppler radar was a major innovation. Why is Doppler radar been so important in terms of isolating and locating exactly where severe weather is taking place?
Todd Krause 05:54
The radar is great, and Doppler radar, especially because what Doppler does is it sees the various wind motions in a thunderstorm. And so, if that thunderstorm has rotation, then generally you can see that in the Doppler radar. And that is a big sign for those of us forecasters that issue the warnings in terms of which storm is may have a tornado, which one may not, but radar is still just a machine. And so there are various limitations on on radar, there are certain principles of physics that you just can't get by, you know, the old line from Star Trek, can't defy the laws of physics or something like that. And so you've got the beam of energy that leaves the radar, and it spreads out gets broader and broader and, and higher and higher as the earth curves underneath that straight radar beam. And so, there are some limitations with regard to radar.
Jim du Bois 06:57
Well, then let's talk about determining ground truth, whether what the radar is indicating is actually occurring. And that's where spotters come into play. Skywarn is an organization of severe storm spotters, what role do they play, and how important is it in the work you do here at the National Weather Service?
Todd Krause 07:15
Well, spotters are so important because we can see something on radar. And even if we issue a tornado warning, if the spotters report that there's an actual tornado occurring somewhere, people are far more likely to get to shelter when they know there's an actual tornado somewhere, even over above our main tornado warnings that might say, you know, radar indicates there's going to be a tornado. Even when we put out a radar indicated tornado warning, people will get to shelter much more quickly when spotters have reported an actual tornado. And so, it helps persuade people to get to shelter. And so, that's one of the values of spotters and, and then the other thing is, you know, they can get word back to their community or through us. And so, if for whatever reason that community hasn't started protective actions, they can do so. So, spotters play just a huge role.
Jim du Bois 08:14
And getting this severe weather information out now goes through a variety of channels. You have, of course, NOAA Weather Radio, we'll get to that in a moment, radio and television, wireless alerts through your wireless device, social media, and the National Weather Service website also has that information. So, with all of these channels of communication, do you recommend to people that they have a variety of ways to receive this information?
Todd Krause 08:38
We do. It's true and in many, many things in life where you don't want to rely just on one thing, but you always want to have a backup. And so it's always smart, whether it's in listening for storm warnings or whatever around your house or wherever you might live, always having more than one of something as a backup is always wise. I mean, we've got a spare tire in our car or truck, you know, why do we have that? Well, the tire might go flat, and so you can put on the spare. It's always smart to have a backup and have more than one way of getting a warning
Jim du Bois 09:15
And NOAA Weather Radio, if you have one, will alert you anytime of the day or night. So is there a certain advantage of having one of those at home?
Todd Krause 09:23
There really is. It comes directly from the National Weather Service, so you know the source is going to be correct and in terms of issuing the warning, so you can rely on the Weather Service for your warnings on weather radio. It'll beep at you or sound an alarm. Maybe just for your county or for a whole broad area, depends on how you've set up that radio, and it'll do so whether it's three in the afternoon or 10pm at night, or even six in the morning, whenever you want it, that alarm will go off.
Jim du Bois 10:00
Let's talk about tornado and severe weather safety. There are a lot of rules out there for what you should do in the event of severe weather. We'll start with tornadoes, Todd. Let's say you receive a tornado warning, meaning that a tornado has actually been reported and may be heading to your area, what action should you take?
Todd Krause 10:17
Should try to get inside, if at all possible. You're going to be so much better off inside. And generally on the lowest level possible of whatever building it is, and in the interior. So, whether that's your house, apartment, getting down to the basement apartment level, getting down to the basement, if you have one, you know, lake cabins, and some of the newer homes that are out there don't have basements. And so, going to that lowest level and the most interior room, the central room if you possibly can, away from windows, because the windows will probably break out from the strong winds. So you want to be away from windows. And that's why we talk about a small interior room if possible.
Jim du Bois 11:00
Let's say you're out in the open, what should you do? Run quickly?
Todd Krause 11:05
Run quickly, run away. But seriously, hopefully you can get to some type of shelter if possible. If you're absolutely caught out in the middle of nowhere, and you've got nothing to get to hopefully you can get down into a ditch if possible, as low as possible. But of course, you may have storm water and water draining away. So, that may not always work out real well. You know, we've always told for years and years get out of your car. Cars that are being built nowadays have so many more safety features, you know all the airbags and everything else. If it's a tornado that's only 70-80 mile per hour winds, and there are some of those weaker tornadoes, you may actually be better off inside your car. On the other hand, if it's a big time tornado that's got 150 mile an hour winds, that car is going to get flung somewhere. So you're not better off in a car at that point. So, and you can't really estimate how strong a tornado is just by looking at it. So, the best bet out of all those is just to be aware of the forecast ahead of time. You know, try not to get caught outside without access to shelter if you know that there are tornadoes that are possible. So change your routine, maybe a little bit and not be caught outside all the time.
Jim du Bois 12:29
There have been instances in the past where people have tried to flee a tornado in a vehicle. And I think that happened with disastrous results in Wichita Falls Texas, back I believe in 1979. Is it a generally a very bad idea if you're in a reasonably good shelter to hop in your car thinking I'll just drive away from this thing.
Todd Krause 12:49
It's a terrible idea to drive away from it because even in a city of let's say, five or 10,000, if all of a sudden you get plenty of people jumping in their vehicles, you're going to have a traffic jam, even in a small town. I mean, we saw that, with the eclipse in Wyoming, you know, Wyoming, very low population, and yet there were traffic jams with the eclipse. And so, if all of a sudden everybody tries to get out of their shelter and go driving away, you're gonna get stuck. Even in a small town.
Jim du Bois 13:23
Some of the safety rules for tornadoes have changed over the years. I remember as a kid, and maybe this is dating me. However, I have heard the same things that I learned as a child repeated as recently as a couple of years ago by a radio personality which shocked me but one of the pieces of safety advice I recall from the 1960s was go to the southwest corner of your basement.
Todd Krause 13:43
I remember that as well. It really doesn't matter, it just flat out doesn't matter which corner you're in. I would just get away from windows. A lot of houses in Minnesota have walkout basements. So you want to stay away from that patio door, get on the other side of the basement, underneath the workbench or something or other in that basement. It really doesn't matter if you're in the southwest corner or wherever. You just want to be somewhere that you're away from windows, and you're going to be sheltered from when all that debris cascades down on top of you.
Jim du Bois 14:21
The other piece of advice I remember was to equalize pressure by opening windows on the opposite side of the approaching storm. Again, I assume a very bad idea by today's perspectives.
Todd Krause 14:32
The theory way back when I suppose made sense, but what it didn't account for was how a house or a structure gets destroyed by a tornado or by strong winds. If you open up that window, the wind gets inside the house. And now that fierce wind can lift off the roof from within and then the walls tumble down. And so, it was isn't a good idea then, isn't a good idea now. It was somewhere around 1970 that they changed that safety rule. But you still will hear a few people now on then saying open up the windows. And that's just the wrong thing to do.
Jim du Bois 15:16
We hear the most about tornadoes in the severe weather sphere. But there are other threats that are extremely dangerous as well, one of which is lightning, and that tends to get a bit underrated. Why is that?
Todd Krause 15:27
It really is because every thunderstorm has lightning, just by definition. When you hear thunder, that has been created by lightning. So, every thunderstorm has lightning, so you can't really warn for every single thunderstorm that's out there. So, it gets underrated for that reason whereas tornado warnings, you know, we generally know which storms might have a tornado. But with lightning, you don't know what storm and so you can't put out warnings left and right for lightning. And so, it gets under underplayed a little bit for that reason. Thankfully, over the last 20 years, especially, there's been a such a growing awareness of the dangers of lightning. And so, you routinely now see groups, whether it's kids in school being brought inside, because there's a threat of lightning, or games that are postponed or a delay in the game for a bit of time, you see that a lot more. And because of that, lightning deaths have really dropped significantly, especially in the last 10 years. So, that's really good in terms of people's awareness of lightning, and what they should do to seek safety.
Jim du Bois 16:37
Let's talk a bit about flash flooding. That's another threat that I think doesn't get a lot of attention because when it happens, oftentimes there aren't a lot of deaths associated with it. But there are some extreme examples of very, very devastating and deadly flash flooding events, one of which, in Rapid City, South Dakota, took place in 1972 and claimed 238 lives. Flash floods do happen here in Minnesota, and what should you be aware of, if you're in an area where flash flooding may be imminent?
Todd Krause 17:08
What you need to do is just basically stay away. Most fatalities with flooding occur when people venture into the flood water. You know, it's not where the flood water suddenly overtakes you. In general, people are either driving or somehow they're walking, and they wind up getting into the floodwater, and they underestimate it, underestimate its power, underestimate how deep it might be. And so, that is what gets people into trouble. 1500 pounds will be swept away by one foot of flowing water. So, if you've got two feet of flowing water, that's, that's 3000 pounds. And that's what most cars are. So, if you are in a sedan or something like that, and you're in two feet of flowing water, you're probably going to go downstream and get trapped. Certainly maybe a little bit more for trucks, but regardless, people underestimate how powerful that water can be. And you go through the math, you figure out the force of water, and two feet of water will carry away most cars.
Jim du Bois 18:18
So, I think you told me once Todd, turn around, don't drown. Don't even take a risk trying to cross flowing water across the road.
Todd Krause 18:25
Right, turn around, make a U turn, get out of there. If all of a sudden you find yourself where a part of the car is already into the water, then just back up. That's the best bet. The other thing about flooding that people might not realize, water sweeping you away. People don't appreciate that the roadbed may be undermined. You know, a lot of times people perish in flooding because they think they're gonna be just fine. And all of a sudden the culvert or whatever is washed away, the road collapses. And that happens a lot. And so that's where you see many fatalities.
Jim du Bois 19:00
Todd, we recently observed the 23rd anniversary of the tornadoes that struck Comfrey, St. Peter and other towns in southern Minnesota. That was quite a remarkable day. Tell us about it.
Todd Krause 19:12
That was one of the most remarkable outbreaks I think I've ever seen. And there were 13 tornadoes in one day from that one system. And sadly, two fatalities. And I still remember seeing the sights of the two fatalities. The little six year old boy named Dustin near St. Peter. There is a gentleman south of New Ulm that I remember seeing where his house had been. And you know, it personalizes these things. And so, that's why it's so important to pay attention to weather warnings and be aware of them and get to shelter but yeah, March 29 of '98, one of the most remarkable outbreaks that hit Comfrey and St. Peter and Le Center and Lonsdale and many places in between.
Jim du Bois 20:01
It seems that city dwellers may be at a disadvantage in terms of spotting approaching severe weather. Is that generally true?
Todd Krause 20:09
That is true, especially in a metro area, whether it's Minneapolis, St. Paul, the region, or other areas, you know, too, whether it's downtown St. Cloud or Rochester, or even in a town of just 1000 people or so, you could be stuck in the middle of a street and there are these very tall trees to your west and even there, you can't really tell. So yeah, if you live on a farm, perhaps, you've got a great vantage point, and can see it coming at you. But even in some of the small towns you might not be able to but certainly in the Twin Cities. And so, that's one of the reasons why, again, we recommend people just get to shelter when we issue tornado warnings.
Jim du Bois 20:52
What is the National Weather Service doing to try and educate people about some of these more extreme weather events we've been experiencing in the past years, the fact that some 500 year rains are occurring at a much more frequent interval than they have in the past. I've heard about the Weather Ready Nation, what exactly is that initiative?
Todd Krause 21:13
Well, it's a really neat initiative. And it's something the Weather Service started a few years ago. And it's basically the Weather Service providing a lot of safety and awareness information to businesses, to organizations to counties and cities and such. So, by us providing information to those organizations, they can then redistribute them to their employees, their people that they're associated with. So it's a great, really neat thing for, for businesses, organizations to be part of, and to be even an ambassador, we call Weather Ready Nation Ambassadors, and because they then are able to take the information we're providing to them and relay that to a lot of people all at the same time. So, if people are interested in that, just look up Weather Ready Nation Ambassador on our website, or just do a search on that. Organizations and businesses and so on, schools can sign up for that. We've got hundreds that have already gone through that process in Minnesota. But that's just a drop in the bucket. There's so many more ways that people could get information. So Weather Ready Nation Ambassador is a great program.
Jim du Bois 22:32
Let's talk about Severe Weather Awareness Week. It starts on Monday, April 12, and continues through Friday, April 16. There will be a tornado drill on Thursday, April 15. Tell us about this public awareness effort.
Todd Krause 22:46
Well, we'll be sending out information every day, not just on our website. But of course, through social media. We'll be doing interviews, getting information out in as many different ways that we possibly can. And so, one day we'll focus on one topic, another day a different topic. And then of course, Thursday will be the tornado drill, so we'll focus on that as well.
Jim du Bois 23:09
And for more information, of course, go to weather.gov, correct?
Todd Krause 23:13
Weather.gov. And no matter what part of Minnesota you're in, you can then click on your part of the state or punch in a zip code. It'll redirect you to the local weather office that handles your part of Minnesota,
Jim du Bois 23:25
Todd Krause is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Weather Service here in the Twin Cities. Todd, thanks again for joining us.
Todd Krause 23:31
You're welcome.
Jim du Bois 23:32
Remember, Severe Weather Awareness Week starts on Monday, April 12, and runs through Friday, April 16. A tornado drill will be conducted on Thursday, April 15. Most counties in Minnesota and Wisconsin will activate outdoor warning sirens and other notification systems at 1:45 pm on that day, and NOAA Weather Radios will also activate. At 6:45 pm that day, many counties in Minnesota and Wisconsin will again activate outdoor warning sirens, and NOAA Weather Radios will also activate. This is a good time to consider a safety plan for your workplace and home. We'll post a link to more detailed information on Severe Weather Awareness Week and the tornado drills on dialogminnesota.com. The COVID 19 pandemic has upended physical fitness routines for many of us. A recent survey indicated that the average American adult has put on nearly 20 pounds of weight over the past year, which has earned the moniker the COVID-19. Next week on Dialogue Minnesota, we'll talk with a personal trainer about establishing a fitness routine and paying closer attention to our diets. I'm Jim du Bois. That's all for this week. See you next time.